If forecasts prove accurate, Chilean mining will achieve a historic milestone in 2033: reaching 6 million tonnes of copper production in a single year, a goal that has seemed increasingly distant with each passing year. Experts see the mid-tier mining sector as a key driver, alongside expansions of existing deposits and the new government plan aimed at unlocking investment.
The year 2018 ended with celebrations for Chilean mining. Copper production reached a record 5.831 million tonnes, leaving the industry on the verge of a long-standing ambition that it had been unsuccessfully pursuing—and continues to pursue today: producing six million tonnes of fine copper annually.
However, since then, production has not only failed to reach that level, but its position has steadily deteriorated. In 2023, output fell to its lowest level at 5.250 million tonnes, nearly 600,000 tonnes below the level recorded five years earlier. To put this into perspective, that decline is equivalent to the combined production of Codelco’s El Teniente and Andina divisions.
This has caused Chile to lose market share in the global copper market, which it still leads, but no longer with the same dominance as before. In 2011, Chile controlled 34% of this strategic market. By last year, that share had fallen by 10 percentage points to approximately 24%. Meanwhile, other mining countries such as Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo, once distant competitors, now account for around 12% and 14% of global supply, respectively.
However, this deterioration may soon come to an end, reviving hopes of reaching the 6-million-tonne mark. The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) has even assigned a date to this milestone: 2033.
“During the 2030–2034 period, an increase in concentrate production is projected, associated with the commissioning of new ore-processing capacity and the replacement of productive capacity in existing operations. This will allow Chile to maintain and subsequently increase refined copper volumes derived from sulfide ores toward the end of the forecasthorizon,” the agency stated in its copper market report released earlier this year.
Among mining experts, while caution remains, there is also optimism. Cochilco’s forecast is supported, among other factors, by projects already under development, which could be complemented by initiatives that are not yet officially announced or remain in the exploration stage but show strong potential.
Added to this is the Government Mining Plan 2026–2030, developed by the new administration of President José Antonio Kast. The plan is structured around three pillars: promoting investment and legal certainty, regulatory modernization to accelerate project development, and strengthening mining institutions.
“In this regard, we will promote the modernization of state-owned mining institutions and companies; advance measures to provide greater transparency in the use of royalty revenues; and foster greater regional mining integration. In this context, we have already reactivated the mining integration treaty with Argentina,” says Álvaro González, Undersecretary of Mining.
“The Potential of Mid-Tier Mining Is Enormous”
Another area attracting significant attention is the consolidation of mining districts currently dominated by small and medium-sized mining companies. As these operations adopt advanced technologies and innovations already common among large mining companies, they could unlock highly attractive growth opportunities for Chilean mining.
“The potential for growth in the mid-tier mining sector is enormous, particularly in the production of our main mining and export product, copper,” explains Álvaro Merino, Executive Director of Núcleo Minero.
In his view, realizing this potential will require a stronger commitment to incorporating cutting-edge technologies into mining processes, including artificial intelligence, automation, robotics, remote operation systems, and advanced data management and processing capabilities—all technologies that are already widely used in large-scale mining.
“To advance through artificial intelligence, companies need workers with the appropriate skill sets. Employees must be able to work collaboratively, possess a high degree of adaptability, be innovative, have strong knowledge of advanced automation and telecommunications, be proactive, demonstrate strong problem-solving abilities, and possess advanced cognitive skills. Today, one of the mining industry’s highest priorities in adopting automation and artificial intelligence is the continuous training of workers so they can use these revolutionary technologies efficiently,” says Merino.
Bastián Del Mauro, Commodity Market Analyst at Plusmining, adds that Chile’s mid-tier mining sector has a significant growth pipeline in copper. “If that project pipeline materializes, production from the segment could approach 300,000 tonnes of copper by 2030, representing an increase of around 40% compared with 2023 levels. This figure should be viewed as a potential outcome, contingent on permitting, financing, exploration success, and operational continuity. Examples illustrating this potential include projects such as El Espino, Arqueros, and expansions or operational continuations at sites such as Carola,” he emphasizes.
He adds that mid-tier mining can contribute incremental growth, productive diversification, and improved utilization of deposits that do not always fit the scale requirements of major mining companies. “Its potential has not yet been fully realized due to constraints related to financing, permitting, and exploration. If those barriers are addressed, it could become a significant source of production growth, especially in a country where large-scale mining faces mature deposits, declining ore grades, and increasingly long development timelines,” Bastián Del Mauro adds.
Along similar lines, Antonio del Río, Mining & Infrastructure Manager at GHD Chile, argues that growth “will not depend solely on commodity prices, but on the ability of these operations to transform themselves, advance in technical sophistication, and integrate technology and people management. This requires incorporating technical and economic feasibility analysis, risk management, workforce management, and long-term planning from the earliest stages — lements that historically have been less developed within this segment.”
ENAMI’s Role
According to Juan Carlos Sáez, Executive Vice President of ENAMI—the company that plays a crucial role in supporting the sector—the objective can be summarized as “more miners, more ore, and more processing.”
“This means accelerating the administration of the mining registry system, a tool that enables small-scale miners to deliver their ore and receive ENAMI’s benefits. We want established miners to increase their productive capacity, which requires us to improve our mineral reception capabilities,” he says. He notes that, in a challenging environment characterized by high metal prices but also elevated input costs that directly affect producers—such as oil and sulfuric acid—“we must improve ENAMI’s purchasing options throughout the country, with timely payments and reliable grade determinations,” he concludes.
Source: La Tercera