Red metal experienced a historic 2025, will its price continue to rise?
By Pablo San Martín
Last year was unprecedented for copper. Chile’s main export product accumulated a series of records, leading it to reach the highest average price in its history.
In its final trading session of 2025, the red metal closed at US$5.672 per pound, equivalent to US$12,504 per tonne, on the London Metal Exchange. The question now is: what will happen in 2026?.
Copper started the year on a strong note. According to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), as of today (January 12, 2026), it was trading at US$5.7 per pound, equivalent to US$12,571 per tonne.
How high could copper go?
Juan Carlos Guajardo, Chief Executive Officer of Plusmining, notes that there is a growing view that the market may be underestimating both supply-side constraints and the persistence of structural demand associated with electrification, power grids, and the energy transition.
For this reason, he explains, “an increasingly likely scenario is one in which copper prices during 2026 move within a range of US$5 to US$6 per pound, in nominal terms.”
In his view, these high prices are underpinned by low inventory levels, particularly outside the United States, as well as by the uncertainty that lies ahead in that country. “We expect high volatility, because with inventories at such low levels, any demand above projections or any supply shortfall could have a significant impact on prices,” he warns.
Carlos Smith, lecturer and researcher at the Center for Business and Society Research of the Universidad del Desarrollo, notes that “international organizations are estimating prices above US$5.15 per pound, due to a structural deficit in global supply.”
How does this benefit the country?
High copper prices would translate into higher revenues for the public coffers, specialists explain. Smith, in particular, argues that “for every one-cent increase in the annual average copper price, the State receives between US$20 million and US$25 million in additional revenues, through Codelco’s surpluses, the mining tax, and general taxes.”
“This helps strengthen the Chilean peso and, therefore, lowers the cost of imports such as fuels, technologies, and food, among others. It is a benefit that can eventually be passed on to prices,” he adds.
For Guzmán, it also implies higher fiscal revenues. He states that “this is obviously positive for a new government (…) and could eventually allow for adjustments to the economy and the repayment of part of the country’s debt.”
Guajardo explains, for his part, that these revenues tend to “ease exchange-rate and inflationary pressures, insofar as high copper prices usually translate into a more appreciated exchange rate.”
“At the same time,” he adds, “prices at the upper end of the cycle support mining investment and extensions to the operating life of existing operations, but they also make it even more evident that Chile’s main challenge is not price levels, but rather the ability to execute projects, unlock permitting processes, and restore productivity.”
Source: Emol