In 2024, the state-owned company recorded a total of 1.422 million tons of copper, a minimal drop of just 0.1%. When considering only its own production, it showed a slight increase of 0.3%.
According to analysts, the mining company is expected to see a modest increase in 2025, driven by the startup of the Rajo Inca project and improved performance at El Teniente and Chuquicamata. However, its gap with Escondida in terms of national production share narrowed to 2.6 percentage points, down from 10 points in 2020.
Codelco overcame the production valley in 2024, leaving behind three consecutive years of declines that led the state-owned miner to its worst performance in 20 years in 2023. This was reflected in Chilean copper production figures released by Cochilco.
Analyzing the performance reported by companies across 17 of the country’s main copper- producing operations, the Chilean state-owned mining company recorded total production of 1.422 million tons of copper, marking a slight decrease of just 0.1% compared to the 1.424 million tons reported in 2023. However, this figure includes Codelco’s stakes in El Abra (49%) and Anglo American Sur (20%).
When looking exclusively at the performance of its own mining divisions, the results shift slightly. In 2024, the state-owned miner produced 1.328 million tons of copper, reflecting a 0.3% increase from the 1.325 million tons reported in 2023.
Regardless of the method used, it is clear that the decline has been curbed, especially considering that in 2023, the year-on-year drop was 8.3%, while in 2022, it reached 10%.
Looking ahead, projections suggest a gradual climb toward 1.7 million tons—the peak level achieved by the company at the beginning of the last decade—which it is expected to regain by the end of the current decade.
This outlook is shared by both the company— which projected in October that its own production in 2025 would range between 1.35 million and 1.39 million tons—and analysts.
“During 2024, we reversed the downward trend. Since August, our production monitoring system finally broke the declining trend, which continued throughout the second half of the year. This was possible because at the start of the year, we resolved long-standing issues, overcame the production valley, and are now ready to begin scaling back to the 1.7 million- ton peak by the end of the decade,” Codelco told Pulso.
Regarding the challenges and milestones for 2025, the state-owned company highlighted several key objectives, including advancing towards the full operational phase of the Rajo Inca project in the Salvador Division, ensuring operational continuity at Radomiro Tomic to recover delays caused by the fatal accident in 2024, continuing to improve performance at Chuquicamata Underground, and strengthening the operation of the processing plants at Andina and Chuquicamata, which last year surpassed 80,000 and 170,000 tons per day (ktpd), respectively.
Juan Carlos Guajardo, founder and executive director of Plusmining, stated that the launch of Rajo Inca will result in “a net increase compared to the last year when the Salvador Division was not producing.” However, he added that “the real question is how Codelco’s major mines will perform. Last year was marked by greater production stability, but also by incidents such as accidents, which add a level of uncertainty.” Nevertheless, he reaffirmed that “projections indicate a slight increase in 2025”.
Cristián Cifuentes, senior analyst at Cesco, acknowledged that “making projections is challenging given that the year has just ended,” but still suggested that “an increase is expected this year”.
“We recognize that 2023 was a turning point. Now, we should see growth—not necessarily strong growth, but steady over time—driven by the gradual recovery of operations,” Cifuentes said. He also expects “better performances at El Teniente and Chuquicamata, which are both underground operations and behave very differently from open-pit mining. The ‘ramp-up’ is slower, and, of course, they are not exempt from the challenges of large- scale underground mining”.
Nonetheless, the Cesco analyst believes that Codelco is moving “closer to its self-imposed target of 1.35 million tons”.
As the state-owned miner’s production has drifted further from its peak, so too has its share of Chile’s total copper production. In fact, historical data indicates that Codelco’s 2024 performance resulted in its lowest-ever share of the country’s copper output.
In 2024, Codelco’s market share stood at 25.8%, marking the third consecutive year of declines. This figure is well below the average of the past 20 years, during which Codelco accounted for over 31% of Chile’s total copper production.
This contrasts with the performance of Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, operated by BHP. The Anglo-Australian company holds a 57.5% stake in the mine, with Rio Tinto owning 30% and the Japanese consortium Jeco holding the remaining 12.5%. In 2024, Escondida increased its copper production by 16%, reaching 1.278 million tons. This gave it a 23.2% share of Chile’s total copper output, narrowing its gap with Codelco to just 2.6 percentage points—the smallest difference in history. By comparison, in 2020, the gap was around 10 percentage points.
Juan Carlos Guajardo believes that Codelco’s declining market share could stabilize. “It all depends on the success of its structural projects. If they are completed as planned, Codelco’s share of national production could hold steady by the end of the decade. However, the largest net production growth will come from the private sector,” the Plusmining executive estimated.
Cristián Cifuentes, on the other hand, expects a further decrease in Codelco’s market share but does not necessarily see it as a negative development.
“Ideally, this should not result from production losses. Hopefully, Codelco can maintain its production levels while its market share declines due to increased diversification of players in the industry. It would be beneficial for Chile to have many more players besides Codelco,” concluded the Cesco analyst.
Fuente: La Tercera