Experts believe it is unlikely that the Asian country will surpass Chile, given its smaller reserves and higher extraction costs.
By Catalina Muñoz-Kappes
China has narrowed the gap with Chile in lithium production over the past decade. If it manages to surpass Chile, it would become the world’s second-largest producer. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), in 2015, China produced 2,000 tons of lithium—over 12,000 tons less than Chile. However, by 2024, the Asian economy’s lithium production had surged to 41,000 tons, while Chile recorded 49,000 tons.
These shifts coincide with other key statistics. China’s lithium reserves remain significantly smaller than those of Chile. According to the USGS, Chile has 9.3 million tons of extractable lithium—meaning it is economically viable and meets minimum physical and chemical criteria based on current mining and production practices. In contrast, China holds reserves of 3 million tons.
Experts consider it unlikely that China will overtake Chile in lithium production. At Plusmining, Juan Carlos Gajardo, Executive Director, and Andrés González, Head of Mining Industry Analysis, argue that as the world’s largest consumer of lithium, China has maximized the exploitation of its resources. However, these resources are more costly to extract than those found in salt flats and spodumene deposits elsewhere in the world.
“Based on known geological information, it is difficult for China to increase its production to Chile’s level,” the experts conclude. However, they point out that China is conducting an intensive exploration campaign in both Sichuan and the Tibetan Plateau to identify additional resources.
Daniela Desormeaux, Director of Studies at Vantaz Group and a board member at Cesco, asserts that Chile is highly competitive in lithium production due to the nature of its deposits and unique environmental conditions. However, she notes that “competitiveness is facing increasing challenges due to rising costs and the complexities involved in project development. This is not only an issue for lithium production but also a broader challenge for the mining industry as a whole.”
According to Desormeaux, it is essential to strengthen complementary strategic areas and promote the efficient and agile development of projects while ensuring sustainability and responsible resource management.
Reserves
Australia remains the world’s largest lithium producer, according to the latest data from the USGS, updated in January. In 2024, the country reached a production of 88,000 tons of lithium. Additionally, its lithium reserves have increased from 4.7 million tons in 2020 to 7 million tons in 2024. This upward trend is also evident in China, where lithium reserves have grown from 1.5 million tons in 2020 to 3 million tons in 2024.
In contrast, Chile’s lithium reserves have remained virtually unchanged since 2020. According to Gajardo and González, the fact that lithium is not subject to mining concessions significantly restricts the ability of new entrants to explore and extract resources.
“In response, the current government’s National Lithium Strategy has proposed granting Special Lithium Operation Contracts (CEOL) for new salt flats. If these agreements are successfully signed, they could pave the way for discovering new reserves and eventually enabling their commercial exploitation,” they state.
Source: El Mercurio