Experts are anticipating the work that will soon be undertaken by the committees to be convened by the Ministry of Finance to set both variables. These figures are key inputs for calculating the structural spending capacity of the government.
The preparation of the 2026 Budget is in its initial phase. Ministries are currently conducting internal work to define their priorities. In parallel, the process of convening experts to join the Potential GDP and Long-Term Copper Price Committees has begun. The registration period is open until June 30.
Once the registration process is closed, the Ministry of Finance, together with the Budget Office, will select the committee members and announce them on July 14. Following this stage, on July 21 the committees will be formally constituted, and provided with methodological inputs to conduct their calculations, with a submission deadline of August 15. Once their projections are submitted, the Ministry of Finance will publish the results on August 29, specifying the potential GDP and the long-term copper price.
These projections will serve to establish the structural parameters needed to determine the level of public spending that is consistent with fiscal policy targets.
The 2024 Potential GDP Expert Committee, composed of 22 economists, set a GDP growth rate of 2.2% for 2025 and an average of 2.1% for the period 2025-2029. For the current budget process, economists surveyed by Pulso see no reason for these levels to change, as no reforms have been implemented that would drive long-term growth in the country.
“There do not appear to be reasons to modify the potential growth rate. Although there is a mining investment boom, other sectors are declining. Labor force growth is stagnating or decreasing, and there is no reason to expect an increase in productivity,” says Alejandro Fernández, an economist at Gemines.
A similar view is shared by Macarena García, an economist at Libertad y Desarrollo (LyD), who states that “no substantial changes are foreseen in the medium-term economic outlook, so growth is still expected to be slightly above 2% for 2026, gradually decreasing to just above 1.5%, as projected by the Central Bank last September.” According to her, this scenario represents a ceiling, as investment remains significantly affected and unemployment persists at high levels, indicating a structural change in the labor market compared to the pre-pandemic period.
Felipe Alarcón, an economist at EuroAmerica, and Sergio Lehmann, Chief Economist at BCI, both foresee a long-term GDP growth rate of 2%. Another analysis comes from Juan Ortiz, an economist at OCEC-UDP, who notes that while “some factors could warrant a slight upward adjustment, such as improved investment outlook and regulatory reforms, given a new anticipated political scenario next year, there are no structural factors to support a significant rebound due to the sluggish total factor productivity.” Based on these considerations, he expects potential GDP growth of 2.1% for 2026.
Copper Price: Slight Upward Adjustment Expected
The 2024 Long-Term Copper Price Committee, composed of 24 economists, set the reference price of the metal at US$4.08 per pound. For this year, experts believe there is room for a slight upward revision.
“In the case of the copper reference price, a significant upward adjustment was already made last year amid improving market prospects driven by the electrification push and rising copper demand, alongside short-term structural supply constraints,” says Ortiz. He adds that while no major changes are expected, “a slight upward adjustment is possible.”
Juan Carlos Guajardo, Partner at Plusmining, added that several factors support expectations for a higher copper price. He noted that “ the global energy transition is advancing decisively. At the same time, the mining industry faces increasing challenges in expanding supply: declining ore grades, project delays, environmental restrictions, and higher costs, among other factors.” In this context, he stated that “these factors create sustained upward pressure on copper prices, which the market is progressively recognizing.”
According to Guajardo, an important indicator is the evolution of long-term price assumptions used by mining companies to evaluate new projects. “Five or six years ago, most studies assumed prices below US$4 per pound. In contrast, recent studies consistently place prices above US$4, and even in the range of US$4.5 per pound. This shift reflects stronger expectations of a structurally tighter market in the future.”
Lehmann sees room for an upward revision of the long-term copper price, a view shared by Alarcón. Fernández also believes there is room for an increase: “There is room for the long-term price to rise somewhat compared to the current level, which I find somewhat conservative.”
A more cautious stance is held by García: “We have seen significant short-term copper price volatility due to news related to the trade war initiated with the United States, but this noise has mainly affected this year’s projections. Medium- and long-term forecasts have not changed substantially.” Therefore, she concludes that “I would not expect significant changes in the projected average copper price for the next 10 years.”
Source: La tercera