Por Juan Cristóbal Ciudad
After several months during which the market was progressively influenced by the possibility of new tariffs on copper imports into the United States, on July 30 President Trump confirmed the imposition of a 50% tariff.
This measure, consistent with the existing duties on steel and aluminum, will apply to semi- fabricated copper products used in the manufacturing of copper-containing final goods.
A key aspect to consider is that in 2026 the state of the copper market will be reviewed, which means this decision could be subject to change. The initial recommendation from the Department of Commerce suggested a more gradual approach: a 15% tariff on refined copper beginning in 2027 and 30% from 2028, while for semi-fabricated products the original recommendation was 30%.
The exclusion of refined copper from this first round of tariffs appears to reflect the influence of the U.S. manufacturing industry, which likely warned of the negative impact of raising costs on such a critical raw material. A tariff on refined copper would have placed local manufacturers at a clear disadvantage against international competitors, particularly from China.
At least initially, the adopted measure manages to protect the U.S. manufacturing industry without directly affecting the global mining sector, which otherwise would have faced declining demand from the United States and the need to redirect exports to other destinations.
Alongside tariffs, other measures—less publicized but of significant importance—were also implemented to strengthen the U.S. copper value chain. Among them is the requirement that 25% of high-quality copper scrap produced in the United States must be sold domestically, improving access to this input for manufacturers and secondary refiners. The Department of Commerce also recommended the establishment of export licenses for this type of scrap to secure domestic supply.
Another key provision is that a growing percentage of various copper products (ore, concentrates, cathodes, and anodes) must also be sold in the domestic market: starting with 25% in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, and reaching 40% in 2029. These measures aim to reinforce national refining capacity, ensuring competitively priced inputs and promoting the expansion of domestic operations.
It is important to recall that the United States has a structural deficit of refined copper, with a shortfall of approximately 800,000 tonnes per year covered by imports (mainly from Chile, as well as Canada, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo, among others). Still, the country is a net exporter of concentrates and scrap, which—if processed domestically—could partially close that gap and move the country closer to self-sufficiency.
Achieving this, however, would require investment in new processing capacity, both primary and secondary, which will take several years once the investment decision is made. This depends largely on whether these “incentives” (such as export restrictions) are perceived as permanent and predictable measures.
Clear signs of adaptation are already visible. For example, in their Q2 2025 reports, companies such as Freeport noted they are evaluating the new scenario, while Grupo México, through its U.S. subsidiary Asarco, is considering expanding mining operations, reopening and enlarging the Hayden smelter, and modernizing the Amarillo refinery.
Hasta ahora, el escenario parece favorable para los países que exportan cobre refinado, como Chile, que no se ven directamente afectados por los aranceles. Sin embargo, de mantenerse estas políticas en el tiempo, la tendencia será hacia una reducción gradual de las importaciones, en la medida que Estados Unidos incremente su capacidad de procesamiento interno.
Además, la obligación de vender un porcentaje del cobre dentro del país genera una baja artificial del precio para la industria estadounidense, lo que constituye un beneficio indirecto a los fabricantes locales y una presión competitiva para los proveedores internacionales.
Frente a este panorama, las empresas mineras deben mantener sus esfuerzos de diversificación de mercados, ya que la tendencia en Estados Unidos parece apuntar no sólo a proteger a la manufactura, sino también avanzar hacia el auto abastecimiento de cobre en toda la cadena productiva.
Fuente: Minería Chilena