While copper prices hover near historic highs, several Chilean mining companies are struggling with operational challenges as the year draws to a close.
In February, the state agency Cochilco projected that Chile’s copper output would grow by nearly 5% in 2025. However, by the third quarter, production appears stagnant—undermining the country’s potential revenues—just as copper prices have surged to record levels in recent weeks.
Yesterday, copper —of which Chile is the world’s largest producer— recorded its second- highest nominal price in history on the London Metal Exchange (LME), climbing 1.86% to US$ 4.90 per pound, while the annual average rose to US$ 4.37 per pound.
Initially, national output was expected to reach 5.76 million tonnes in 2025. However, lower ore grades, accidents at major mines, and operational adjustments have weighed on both the mining sector and the broader economy. The nearly flat production growth could represent 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes less than initially projected for the year—a gap that, according to recent company reports, will be difficult to close in the fourth quarter.
Industry Challenges
The challenging environment facing mining companies is reflected in the latest operational results from key producers. At Freeport-McMoRan, global copper output in the third quarter of 2025 totaled 414,000 tonnes, down from 499,000 tonnes in the same period of 2024. The decline was primarily due to a temporary suspension of operations in Indonesia, which cut around 41,000 tonnes. In Chile, El Abra—a joint venture between Freeport and Codelco—produced 71,000 tonnes of copper between January and September, 2,000 tonnes less than in the same period of 2024.
At Antofagasta Minerals (AMSA), the company announced that its 2025 copper production would likely come in at the lower end of its guidance, around 660,000 tonnes, according to its latest report.
Meanwhile, Teck Resources revised down its 2025 production forecast for Quebrada Blanca due to tailings-related issues, now expecting between 210,000 and 230,000 tonnes, below the initial range of 230,000–270,000 tonnes.
Until the El Teniente accident, Codelco appeared on track for a stronger year. The state-owned company had initially forecast 1.37–1.40 million tonnes, but has since adjusted expectations to 1.34–1.37 million tonnes.
Missed Opportunity
“2025 has not been a lost year, but it is one in which the industry has been unable to fully capitalize on favorable market conditions, as would have been possible had production targets set earlier in the year been achieved,” said Juan Cristóbal Ciudad, Senior Market and Industry Analyst at Plusmining.
Still, he noted that this year’s expected output of 5.4–5.45 million tonnes remains above the previous lows of 5.3 million tonnes seen in earlier years.
“Initial projections for 2025 pointed to a relatively balanced market with a slight surplus. However, due to recent accidents, a deficit is now anticipated, which has supported the sharp rise in copper prices,” added Álvaro Merino, Executive Director of Núcleo Minero.
Source: El Mercurio