Incidents and collapses at key operations worldwide have raised the risk of a market deficit by year-end. Locally, a lower performance than in 2024 is already anticipated.
By Patricia Marchetti
Copper is shining brighter than ever these days. Driven by supply disruptions, minimal inventories, and a demand cycle that shows no signs of easing, the red metal recently surpassed its nominal historical high, breaking the US$5 per pound barrier and fueling projections that now flirt with US$6.
Behind the scenes, the main actors—the copper mines themselves—have navigated an eventful Key operations for global supply have faced production setbacks: the Grasberg collapse, flooding at Kamoa-Kakula, protests at Las Bambas, and the fatal accident at El Teniente.
In the Top 20 of the world’s largest copper-producing mines as of midyear, Chile stands out globally with seven operations, comfortably leading the ranking with the giant Escondida, which produced 680,000 tonnes.
Chile could have had eight mines in the Top 20, but issues at Quebrada Blanca, which led Teck to cut its forecasts, placed it at number 24. “Had the 2025 projection been maintained, it would have ranked 18th,” said Plusmining’s market and industry analyst, Juan Cristóbal Ciudad.
In terms of volume, Ciudad noted that Chile’s production grew 2.6% year-on-year (67,000 tonnes) in the first half of the year, led by increases at Codelco and Escondida. This performance positioned the country third in production growth, behind the Democratic Republic of the Congo (179,000 tonnes or 12%) and Russia (118,000 tonnes or 26%). They were
followed by Zambia (61,000 tonnes or 18%) and Mexico (53,000 tonnes or 32%). Peru, with five of the largest copper mines, registered a 46,000-tonne (3.5%) increase, placing sixth.
Altogether, the 20 largest mines contributed 3.95 million tonnes between January and June, equivalent to 35% of global production during the period.
Chile: 2025 below 2024
“In a global context marked by setbacks at major mines, Chile has managed to demonstrate operational resilience,” Ciudad highlighted. However, he added that the situation at El Teniente and QB “could affect the second half of the year, so that ground gained might be challenged over the full year.”
Álvaro Merino, Executive Director of Núcleo Minero, recalled that Cochilco’s projection for 2025 stood at 5.76 million tonnes, above the 5.5 million tonnes produced in 2024 (a 4.6% increase). “But between January and September, Chile’s copper production is virtually unchanged, slightly below 4 million tonnes.” He projected that second-half figures will fall
below last year’s levels, meaning 2025 could close at around 5.45 million tonnes—below 2024 output.
Global deficit
Global estimates for 2025 initially pointed to a relatively balanced copper market with a small surplus, but according to Ciudad, “the outlook is becoming increasingly complex, and there are strong reasons to closely monitor the evolution of operations that have faced difficulties.” In his view, collapses, weather-related factors, and work stoppages are creating a temporary supply loss that could have significant effects if prolonged—potentially triggering a deficit.
“A real supply crisis would occur if several Tier 1 mines remain either out of operation or running at low capacity for several consecutive quarters. In that scenario, the markets face a serious risk: volatile prices, potential force majeure events, or higher physical premiums. That could trigger strong reactions across the entire industry chain—from financing, exploration, and operations to even the secondary copper market (recycled or scrap),” he warned.
Globally, copper production for this year is estimated at 24 million tonnes—1 million more than in 2024. Goldman Sachs recently projected that, due to disruptions at key mines, the market balance shifted from a surplus of 105,000 tonnes to a deficit of 55,000 tonnes in 2025.
Reserve map
On the geological front, Chile remains by far the country with the largest reserves—190 million tonnes. However, unlocking those reserves is no simple task.
Merino emphasized that mining investment faces “a major hurdle in environmental permitting, where a high-complexity project requires an average of 138 months to complete—nearly 12 years.” In his view, legal stability mechanisms—such as those once offered under the now- repealed DL600—could regain traction, citing examples from Peru and Argentina’s recent RIGI framework, which provides 30 years of tax predictability.
“We must accelerate the permitting process, provide greater certainty, and establish legal stability mechanisms,” he stressed.
Source: Diario Financiero