Last year, Escondida produced only 50,000 tonnes less copper than Codelco’s total output—a gap dramatically narrower than in 2011, when the difference reached 900,000 tonnes.
Minera Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine operated and controlled by BHP, is on track to surpass, for the first time in history, the combined production of all Codelco divisions this year.
On Tuesday, the state-owned company was forced to lower its expected production range for the year following the fatal accident at El Teniente, setting a revised estimate with a floor of 1.31 million tonnes of copper. In contrast, Escondida could reach 1.32 million tonnes this year if it maintains its current production pace. This would mark the first time the privately operated mine surpasses Codelco’s total output.
A gap of only tens of thousands of tonnes
Between January and September, Escondida produced 990,000 tonnes of copper—an average of 330,000 tonnes per quarter—according to BHP’s October update. If the mine delivers another 330,000 tonnes in the final quarter, total 2025 output would reach 1.32 million tonnes.
By comparison, Codelco reported own-production of 937,000 tonnes of copper as of September, falling short of Escondida’s output for the same period.
Álvaro Merino, Executive Director of Núcleo Minero, estimates that “if Escondida records the same production level in September–December 2025 as in the last four months of the previous year, it would close with 1,351,000 tonnes—a figure higher than Codelco’s projected own- production.”
In its latest production report, BHP forecast between 1.15 million and 1.25 million tonnes of copper for its 2026 financial year (September 2025–September 2026). The company does not disclose expected production for the calendar year 2025.
Codelco could still retain the lead
Juan Cristóbal Ciudad, Senior Market and Industry Analyst at Plusmining, notes that Escondida is not yet guaranteed to overtake Codelco. “Our base estimate for Escondida remains slightly below Codelco’s range for its divisions,” he says. “Therefore, under current known conditions, Codelco’s divisions would still show higher total production.”
The gap widens further when including Codelco’s attributable production. Factoring in the company’s ownership stakes in El Abra (49%), Anglo American Sur (20%), and Quebrada Blanca (10%), the state-owned miner’s output between January and September reaches 1.16 million tonnes—surpassing Escondida during the same period.
Production levels matter, especially with copper prices at nominal record highs. Last week, the metal even crossed the symbolic US$5 per pound threshold. The higher the output, the greater the contribution to the treasury. Escondida has been one of the key drivers behind the recent recovery in Chile’s copper production—which had stagnated in earlier years—reaching 3.5 million tonnes by August, according to Cochilco, a 0.7% increase compared with the same period last year.
A narrowing gap across decades
Codelco’s and Escondida’s recent results reflect a steadily shrinking gap between the state- owned miner and the world’s largest copper mine. The expected 2025 outcome—regardless of whether Escondida ultimately surpasses Codelco—is far smaller than the differences seen in previous years.
Over the past 20 years, the widest gap occurred in 2011, when Codelco’s own-division production exceeded Escondida’s by more than 900,000 tonnes.
Conversely, the smallest difference was recorded last year, when Codelco outperformed the private mine by only 50,000 tonnes. With this year’s partial results, the state-owned miner is currently 53,000 tonnes below Escondida.
Ciudad notes that the future performance of both companies will largely depend on the success of their ongoing project portfolios. “For Codelco, its structural projects will be essential to sustaining production, while Escondida also has a significant investment pipeline to maintain its leadership, which was disclosed some time ago,” he says.
Plusmining’s projections indicate that, assuming no delays or operational setbacks, Codelco’s divisions (excluding attributable production) would continue to outproduce Escondida for the remainder of the decade. “But as always in mining, the final outcome will depend on project execution and operational stability,” Ciudad emphasizes.
BHP overtakes Codelco
Codelco’s longstanding position as the world’s leading copper producer—unchallenged until a few years ago—is now being contested. Its main competitor is Anglo-Australian miner BHP, whose key copper asset is its 57.5% ownership stake in Escondida. Rio Tinto holds 30%, and Japan’s Jeco Corp. owns the remaining 12.5%. BHP, as the operator, reports the mine’s full production in its results.
In 2024, Codelco recorded total copper production of 1.43 million tonnes, of which 1.33 million tonnes came from its own divisions. BHP reported 1.37 million tonnes of copper across its operations in Chile, Australia, Peru and Brazil.
“In the first half of this year, Codelco produced 690,000 tonnes, while BHP reached 729,000 tonnes, making it the world’s top copper producer. If this trend continues, and considering that Codelco’s second-half 2025 output will be lower than in the same period last year, BHP will remain the world’s leading copper producer,” Merino adds.
Source: El Mercurio