Cesco projects that in 2028 Chile will produce 60 tonnes of gold, surpassing the country’s production peak reached in 2012. For this year, expert estimates range between 37 and 46 tonnes.
By Matías Vera
This year, gold production posted an increase not seen since 2015. As of the third quarter of 2025, Chile has produced 32,681 kilograms of fine gold, a 27.9% rise compared to 2024, when it produced 24,919 kilograms of the precious metal over the same period, according to public information from the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco).
Experts project that by year-end, gold production will range between 37 and 46 tonnes, placing Chile in the 20th or 21st position in the global ranking of producers, according to the World Gold Council.
Although several factors are considered, the most significant driver is the ramp-up of Salares Norte, Gold Fields’ project inaugurated at the end of October, which expects to produce 300,000 ounces of gold this year. For next year, it forecasts approximately 550,000 ounces. “Clearly, on its own it accounts for 25% of national production — practically all of the increase,” says Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of GEM Mining Consulting.
Meanwhile, Matías Marañón, head of consulting at Plusmining, states that “Salares Norte is driving this growth, consolidating itself as the largest gold mine in the country and potentially accounting for one-fifth or more of national production in the coming years.”
Another contributing factor is that some operations — given the record gold price reached on October 20 on the London Metal Exchange, at US$4,338.25 per ounce — have increased production to take advantage of the favorable conditions in the surging gold market.
“Centinela, for example, and Los Pelambres — both operated by Antofagasta Minerals — have increased gold as a by-product. In the first half of the year alone, Antofagasta Minerals estimated a 36% increase in gold output, which is clearly influenced by elevated prices and the opportunity to secure higher revenues,” adds Guzmán.
A Decade of Gold
After a decade, Chilean gold output is poised for a rebound. In 2015, Chile produced 32,681 kilograms of gold as of the third quarter, while this year it produced 31,861 kilograms over the same period. The lowest annual production in the last decade occurred in 2022, with 30,093 kilograms. In fact, comparing that year with 2025 (as of September), production has increased by 11 additional tonnes.
“There has been a boom in exploration and discoveries of high-grade gold deposits in the high Andes, particularly in the Maricunga belt. Another relevant area is the Vicuña–El Indio belt farther south, where rich deposits are also found,” explains Irene del Real, geologist, academic, and board member at Cesco.
The expert notes that interest in gold does not fade because it acts as a financial safe-haven asset rather than a practical-use metal. “Today, in a context of political instability, geopolitical tensions, and armed conflicts, the price and demand for gold have increased because investors seek assets that are tangible and not volatile.”
Del Real adds that “gold demand in 2025 has reached historic highs, driven mainly by purchases from central banks. Gold has long been a measure of national wealth. As a safe-haven asset, it carries no volatility, is tangible, and becomes highly attractive during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.”
Golden Projections
Projections for year-end 2025 range between 37 and 46 tonnes, according to Plusmining, Cesco, and GEM.
Marañón of Plusmining projects that “production will fall between 37,300 and 40,400 kilograms.”
Cristián Cifuentes, senior analyst at Cesco, anticipates that “2025 production could reach between 43.2 and 44.7 tonnes, slightly more than 20% above 2024 levels.”
Beyond 2025, Cesco forecasts a particularly favorable outlook: it estimates that by 2033 Chile will produce 70 tonnes of gold.
“For the following years, driven by the full operation of Salares Norte, the extension of La Coipa (2028), and the Minera Florida 100 project (2028), which aims to expand current operations, Chile could reach 60 tonnes by 2028,” Cifuentes notes.
“After 2028, investment decisions are expected for initiatives such as Lobo-Marte, Volcán, Nueva Esperanza, and El Zorro — potential and feasible projects that could lift production to around 70 tonnes by 2033,” he adds. Cifuentes also indicates that if Chile surpasses 70 tonnes in 2033, the country could rank close to 17th globally. Chile’s production peak dates back to 2012, when it produced 48,648 kilograms of gold. “It follows that in 2026 we would surpass the 2012 peak,” Cifuentes concludes.
Global Positioning
Given the outlook for this year, Guzmán asserts that “Chile should rank between 20th and 21st place, representing an improvement of ten positions compared to last year.”
Within Latin America, Chile would place fifth, “behind Mexico (approximately 130 tonnes), Peru (100 tonnes), Brazil (70 tonnes), and Colombia (60 tonnes).”
Marañón confirms these positions and adds that, with around 1.2% of global production, “Chile should consolidate itself among the top five producers in Latin America, behind Mexico (4%), Peru (3%), Brazil (2%), and Colombia (2%).”
Source: La Tercera