The year 2025 ended with copper prices hovering around record levels. This week (January 3, 2026), copper reached an all-time high of US$5.675 per pound, already pointing toward US$6. A similar dynamic has been observed in gold, which surpassed US$4,500 per ounce, a level never seen before.
By Ignacio Badal
Lithium, meanwhile, although still far from its 2022 peak of US$80,000 per tonne, has also resumed an upward trend, rising by more than 50% over the year to nearly US$16,000.
Chile’s main mining commodities are therefore experiencing an unprecedented boom, which will likely become a strong incentive for investment in the country, regardless of the political or macroeconomic context, which could in turn become an additional positive factor.
“Most analysts agree that in 2026 both gold and copper will remain at high price levels. Lithium demand could also rebound as global economic conditions improve and China consolidates its position in the new geopolitical landscape,” forecasts Juan Ignacio Guzmán, Chief Executive Officer of GEM Mining Consulting.
So far, however, official data point to a decline in the amounts of mining investment projected for 2026. According to the latest report from the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), published on December 10, the mining investment project portfolio in Chile for 2026 amounts to US$8,942 million, 8.8% less than the US$9,809 million recorded in 2025 and 11% below the US$10,117 million projected for 2027.
This lower figure could nevertheless be reversed, given the momentum typically generated by high prices, which tend to accelerate certain activities such as exploration, particularly in copper, an activity that in any case involves more limited investment amounts.
“In the case of copper, short-term price fluctuations tend to have more immediate effects on exploration, which usually reacts more quickly to short-term signals,” explains Emilio Castillo, professor at the Department of Mining Engineering of the University of Chile. “However, investment decisions in large-scale projects depend more on structural factors, such as the increasing difficulty of developing new deposits, higher costs, and regulatory timeframes,” he adds.
In this bullish copper cycle, capacity expansions could also be announced, which generally require shorter execution periods.
“If prices of critical metals such as copper, gold, silver, or lithium remain high over the medium and long term, this should trigger increases in companies’ production capacity. To take advantage of such elevated prices, companies should produce as much as possible,” argues Víctor Garay, Mining Market Coordinator at Cochilco.
Gold differs from copper in that its projects typically involve shorter cycles and smaller production scales, which could lead to the emergence of a greater number of initiatives.
As for lithium, the outlook points to “a resurgence of exploratory and productive interest, conditioned by the stance adopted by the new administration regarding the implementation of private investment,” notes Castillo.
Key projects
The investment projected for this year in Cochilco’s portfolio corresponds to execution schedules reported by the companies that own the projects. Among them, three stand out due to their scale.
The largest investment is the Collahuasi infrastructure development and production capacity improvement project, known as C20+, which increases processing capacity from 170,000 to 210,000 tonnes per day and includes a desalination plant. This initiative will allow operational continuity for 20 years and requires an investment of US$3,670 million.
The second-largest initiative in terms of investment is Rajo Inca, Codelco’s project that extends the operating life of the Salvador Division by 47 years. It involves an investment of US$2,688 million in 2026 and shows 98% progress.
The third project is the optimization and operational continuity of Candelaria, which extends the mine’s life by 10 years from 2030 onward. The Lundin Mining operation requires an investment of US$600 million.
Most of the projects included by Cochilco are brownfield developments, meaning they are carried out on existing operations, with two medium-scale mining exceptions that qualify as greenfield projects. These are the Fenix Gold project by Rio2, with an investment of US$235 million to process 115 million tonnes of ore and produce 1.32 million ounces of gold, with operations expected to begin in mid-2026; and the Minera Arqueros copper project, owned by Japan’s Nittetsu Mining, also with an investment of US$235 million, designed to process 1.8 million tonnes of ore per year.
Looking at the catalogue of mining projects submitted to the Environmental Impact Assessment System (SEA), 2025 saw a rebound compared to the previous year, driven mainly by two Escondida projects that together total nearly US$2,650 million.
In addition, there are relevant projects that Cochilco did not include in its 2026 portfolio. “I would particularly highlight the submission of the project for a new concentrator plant at El Abra (Freeport-McMoRan), with an estimated investment of around US$7,500 million,” warns Juan José Pardo, mining industry analyst at Plusmining.
Slight increase in production
The year 2025 was characterized by instability in the mining sector, especially in copper. There were even months in which mining-related Imacec figures were negative.
The industry faced several events that directly affected production, such as the fatal rockburst at Codelco’s El Teniente Division, recovery issues at Collahuasi that reduced processing rates, difficulties at Teck’s Quebrada Blanca tailings facility, and equipment failures at Mantoverde, operated by Capstone Copper.
Under this scenario, copper production for 2025 is projected at around 5.49 million tonnes, according to Plusmining, representing a slight decline of 0.3% compared to 2024.
For 2026, some of the aforementioned difficulties are expected to continue having lagged effects on production. Even so, “a slight recovery in output is anticipated, with estimated copper production of around 5.505 million tonnes, which would mark marginal growth compared to 2025, but still far from a robust expansion scenario in terms of volume,” anticipates Pardo of Plusmining.
This modest increase offers little room to rebalance a global copper market that has maintained a persistent deficit, driven by strong demand from industries such as electromobility and data centers, which underpin the rise of artificial intelligence.
“In the case of copper, everything indicates that 2026 will continue to be a tight market year, similar to what was observed in 2025. Primary supply faces structural constraints and difficulties in expanding at the pace of demand,” anticipates Castillo of the University of Chile.
“In terms of global copper supply and demand, a market deficit of between 250,000 and 350,000 tonnes is expected next year,” forecasts Guzmán of GEM Mining Consulting, who believes that in 2026 copper inventories could fall to historic lows, generating “a scenario of very high volatility.”
Regarding gold, a highly volatile market that is less dependent on production, Castillo explains that there are no substantial changes in global risk factors that would justify a sharp price correction. As for lithium, he notes that its price will depend on the evolution of demand associated with electromobility and energy storage, as well as potential changes in supply.
“Here, a stabilization should be observed, considering the closure of higher-cost operations and greater production availability worldwide,” he anticipates.
The risky AI factor for copper
The latest surge in copper prices has been driven by expectations of increased construction of data centers to support the development of artificial intelligence, which require large volumes of cables, transformers, and a substantial increase in electricity consumption.
However, risks have emerged. These include the high level of debt taken on by technology companies to finance these investments and the inability of the U.S. power system to supply the growing energy demand. At the same time, a perception has taken hold in the market that the massive expansion of artificial intelligence could represent a bubble, potentially failing to deliver the returns needed to justify the scale of committed investment.
“If market participants’ perceptions change and it becomes clear that many companies may cancel the construction of these data centers due to a lack of power supply, excessive debt, or a sharp correction in expectations of artificial intelligence profitability, copper prices could fall significantly,” warns Aaron Zuckerman, professor at the University of Concepción and investor in the mining market.
Source: La Tercera