By 2035, private CEOLs, according to a report from the Ministry of Mining, will allow Chile to reach 600,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), with growth expected to begin in 2031.
By Matías Vera
Experts consider these targets to be “highly optimistic” and “reasonable.”
By 2035, Chile will produce 430,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). This promising lithium output is projected by the Boric administration for the coming years: more than 400,000 tons by 2034, as presented in February of this year. As a result, the production of the “white gold” would double Chile’s current output, considering the 280,000 tons produced in 2024.
“Our country has embarked on an unprecedented path to enable an industry capable of consolidating the competitive advantages of this resource within our territory. In this regard, this strategy has not only laid the groundwork to increase production over the next decade, but has also established concrete definitions to deepen Chile’s global leadership as a responsible producer of strategic minerals and a reliable partner for the energy transition,”stated at the beginning of the report the Minister of Mining, Aurora Williams, and the subsecretary of the portfolio, Suina Chahuán.
The projected production of 430,000 tons includes the start-up and expansion of various lithium projects. A significant portion of the growth will come from the Salar de Atacama, approaching 400,000 tons by 2030 as a result of developments by SQM-Codelco (Nova Andino) and Albemarle. The remaining tons in the estimate will come from the Maricunga and Salares Altoandinos projects. The first is a partnership between Codelco and Rio Tinto, and the second between Enami and Rio Tinto.
Another source of lithium will come from private Special Lithium Operation Contracts (CEOLs), which will contribute a significant number of tons to the country. By 2035, these CEOLs—referred to as “saline systems and other prioritized deposits”—will allow Chile to reach around 600,000 tons of LCE domestically. According to the document, growth would begin in 2031.
The report clarifies that these projects are still in exploratory stages; therefore, it is not possible to determine their full geological or production potential. The Ministry of Mining was consulted by Pulso on the matter and stated that “indeed, there is no certainty about exactly how much private operators will produce, since they are in the preliminary stages of exploration.”
The calculations were made according to preliminary and conservative estimates of how much some projects could produce, based on publicly available data from those projects that are more advanced.
Indigenous consultations
Through the National Lithium Strategy (ENL), the State carried out 13 Indigenous consultation processes (PCI) in the regions of Atacama, Antofagasta, and Tarapacá. Twelve processes were led by the Ministry of Mining and one by Corfo. The latter took place in the Salar de Atacama, which hosts one of the largest lithium reserves in the world.
The Ministry of Mining’s report states that only one process remains underway: the Salar de Coipasa. All the others have been closed. Coipasa is in the third stage of internal deliberation, with only two stages remaining: dialogue and systematization.
The government has submitted eight supreme decrees to the Office of the Comptroller General of the Republic (CGR), a stage that enables the signing of CEOL agreements between the State and companies. Four will be direct agreements and four others will be through bidding processes. “By March 2026, the submission of two decrees is projected, for the Ollagüe and Laguna Verde salars, under the direct agreement modality,” the ministry anticipates in the document.
The Undersecretary of Mining, Suina Chahuán, told Pulso that they will leave “10 CEOL processes under review by the Comptroller’s Office, led by private companies. The timelines will depend on the oversight body and the incoming administration, but we are confident that, following a strategic and long-term vision, this State policy will continue so that lithium benefits all Chileans.”
“Highly optimistic”
The head of the mining area at Plusmining, Andrés González, examines the projections in the report. “While the projection of close to 400 thousand tons of LCE by 2035 for the operations currently existing in the Salar de Atacama seems reasonable, it appears highly optimistic for the development of greenfield projects. In particular, it is unlikely that the Salares Altoandinos project by Enami and Rio Tinto will begin producing within the next ten years. This is due to the project’s early stage, but also because Eramet established mining easements in the exploitation area, which in practice ends up blocking its development.”
The expert adds that “in the case of the Paloma project in the Salar de Maricunga, developed by Codelco and Rio Tinto, although it shows a higher level of progress, it is still in the exploration stage. Prefeasibility and feasibility studies still need to be carried out, in addition to the construction and pre-production period, making it difficult for production to begin in 2031.”
González warns that “this is compounded by the fact that Rio Tinto, the private partner in both projects, has shown a greater willingness to prioritize the advancement of its lithium project portfolio in Argentina over Chile. Finally, considering the slow progress in the processing of CEOLs for projects entirely in private hands and the early stages of hydrogeological studies, it also seems unlikely that these initiatives will begin new production within a ten-year horizon.”
For his part, Víctor Pérez, an academic from the Faculty of Engineering and Sciences at Adolfo Ibáñez University (UAI), notes that “there is much debate about Enami’s capacity in Salares Altoandinos, but with Rio Tinto involved, an acceleration of the project is expected. I would venture to say that if the new government advances with new private CEOLs, these expectations would not only be met, but we could even exceed them. There are several opportunities beyond the salars prioritized by the current government that should emerge between 2026 and 2027. These expectations seem reasonable.”
Source: La Tercera