At the current average price, the government would collect around US$300 million more than under the latest assumption by Chile’s Budget Office (Dipres).
The price of Chile’s main export reached a new nominal record yesterday, trading at US$6.43 per pound. This was four cents above the previous record of US$6.39 per pound, set in May.
As a result, the average copper price so far in 2026 stands at US$5.97 per pound, 38% higher than in the same period last year, according to data from the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco). The second-quarter Public Finance Report issued by the Budget Office (Dipres) used an average copper price of US$5.90 per pound for this year as one of its macroeconomic assumptions. “Considering that difference, and assuming additional fiscal revenue of around US$50 million for every cent by which the actual price exceeds the official estimate, the increase in fiscal revenue could exceed US$300 million as a benchmark estimate,” says Juan Cristóbal Ciudad, Senior Market and Industry Analyst at consulting firm Plusmining.
He considers a sharp downward correction from the levels of around US$6 per pound at which copper has traded on average so far to be unlikely.
The reason behind the record
The copper peak on the London Metal Exchange “reflects a physically tight supply situation. The shortage of concentrate is keeping treatment charges at Chinese smelters at extremely low or negative levels, while the possibility of new U.S. tariffs is diverting shipments toward the United States and reducing availability in other markets,” says Emanoelle Santos, market analyst at XTB.
Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, and its contribution to global supply has declined. According to Cochilco, between January and May this year, copper production fell by 8.8% compared with the same period in 2025.
“Chile is not capturing the full potential of this positive cycle because production is declining, partly due to lower ore grades, accidents, and delays in structural projects intended to restore production,” says Javier Mella, PhD in Finance and academic at Universidad de los Andes.
He stresses that it is not possible to significantly increase copper production in the short term. To strengthen Chile’s leadership, he recommends “accelerating mining investment; improving the ability to manage multiple complex projects simultaneously; reinvigorating mining exploration; and ensuring greater regulatory certainty.”
Losses from operational stoppages
Unexpected shutdowns at mining operations have also become more costly. For example, when a nationwide blackout left the entire country without electricity for several hours in February 2025, private mining companies lost 8,730 tonnes of production, equivalent to US$83 million in foregone revenue, according to estimates by Sonami.
Even shorter stoppages have an impact. According to mining parts supplier Depot Parts, an unplanned shutdown of a high-tonnage piece of equipment can result in direct costs of up to US$180,000.
Source: El Mercurio