The decline in Chile’s copper production was reaffirmed—with some nuances—in reports from Antofagasta Minerals, BHP and Anglo American. Low ore grades, maintenance and weather events are among the causes. If this year’s forecasts are confirmed, 2026 would end with the lowest production level since 2003.
According to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), copper production fell by 7.7% between January and August this year compared with the same period in 2025, equivalent to 271,000 fewer tonnes. Álvaro Merino, Executive Director of Núcleo Minero, adds in comments to DF: “Last year, copper production reached 5,388,000 tonnes, below the 5,413,000 tonnes produced in 2004. This year’s forecast is 5.15 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2003.”
In an interview with DF, Economy and Mining Minister Daniel Mas acknowledged that “Cochilco estimates we will be 6.6% below production in 2025; we will be slightly above 5 million tonnes.” The good news, he said, is that “we could increase output by around 300,000 tonnes in 2027.”
But some forecasts are even slightly lower. Andrés González, Head of the Mining Industry Analysis Unit at Plusmining, says: “Our projection indicates that Chile’s copper production in 2026 will be below 5.1 million tonnes, its lowest level since 2003 and almost 800,000 tonnes below the all-time high reached in 2018.”
He notes that approximately 80% of the decline is concentrated in two companies: BHP and Codelco.
Although short-term factors such as bad weather associated with El Niño have had an impact, he says the fact is that recent years have shown a downward trend. “Lower ore grades and aging deposits pose a structural challenge to maintaining production,” he stresses.
Can the situation be reversed? Despite this year’s copper production being set to reach its lowest level since 2003, Merino expects the trend to begin reversing in 2027, with output close to 5.5 million tonnes, followed by increases in subsequent years.
“The data clearly show that copper production has lost momentum for more than two decades, despite the enormous investment effort: US$234 billion between 2006 and 2025.
That amount has not been enough to increase production. And since the activity we observe today reflects investments made in the past, the conclusion is straightforward: to increase future production, we must invest now,” he says.
In this regard, he emphasizes that mining investment requires two basic conditions: legal certainty and regulatory stability. Although he believes recently approved regulations—particularly the sweeping economic reform—are moving in the right direction, he argues that, above all, “the bureaucratic tangle of environmental regulation must be untangled without lowering protection standards.”
He concludes: “A turning point will come next year, and copper production will gradually recover. Provided that the substantial investment pipeline materializes, along with the projects that have entered the permitting process, we should reach 6 million tonnes by around 2033.”
Looking ahead to 2027, González also sees a somewhat more favorable outlook. He estimates that production could recover to between 5.2 million and 5.3 million tonnes, driven by operational improvements and production increases at certain mines. However, he warns that “Chile will remain below its all-time high at least for the rest of this decade.”
Fiscal impact
The Executive Director of Núcleo Minero notes that mining’s contribution to public finances reached US$7.306 billion in the first eight months of 2026, comprising US$5.973 billion in taxes from private mining companies and US$1.333 billion in transfers from Codelco. The contribution from private mining, he added, increased by 45.9% in real terms, while
Codelco’s contribution fell by 0.2%.
Based on performance through August 2026 and projections for the following months, Merino estimates that “mining’s contribution to public finances will be around US$10.8 billion, of which US$8.8 billion will come from private mining—a record—and US$2 billion from Codelco.”
He adds that the Budget Directorate (Dipres) projects the sector’s contribution to public finances in 2027 will reach approximately US$12.1 billion, comprising US$9.3 billion in taxes from private mining and US$2.8 billion from Codelco.
Source: Diario Financiero