Chile’s leading mining companies reported mixed results for the first half of the year, a period marked by copper price volatility following the announcement that the United States would impose tariffs on the red metal. This move prompted an acceleration in copper purchases by the U.S.
Codelco, BHP, Teck, and Antofagasta Minerals all posted positive—some even record—performances. According to Máximo Pacheco, Chairman of Codelco, the state-owned company increased its copper output by 9% in the first semester. Specifically, production at the El Teniente division rose by 14%.
Antofagasta Minerals, the mining arm of the Luksic Group, reported an 11% increase in production for the period. BHP, meanwhile, posted an 8% rise in copper production in the financial year ending in June. Notably, output at Escondida, operated by the Australian miner, reached its highest level in 17 years. Teck also saw a 3% uptick in its copper production. According to Juan Cristóbal Ciudad, Market Analysis Lead at Plusmining, the increases reported by Codelco, Escondida, and Antofagasta Minerals are particularly significant, as these three companies together account for approximately 60% of Chile’s copper production.
These production gains occurred in a context of heightened copper price volatility, albeit at relatively high price levels, driven by expectations surrounding the U.S. tariff policy. In the first half of the year, the average price of copper on the London Metal Exchange stood at US$4.27 per pound.
Conversely, copper production at Freeport-McMoRan and Anglo American declined by 13% year-over-year in the first six months of 2025.
In Anglo American’s case, this drop is partly attributable to lower-than-expected output at Collahuasi. “Copper production in Chile totaled 96,600 tonnes, which was lower than the comparative period due to lower ore grades, reduced recoveries, and water constraints at Collahuasi, as well as planned lower processing rates at Los Bronces,” the company stated. Freeport’s lower output, meanwhile, was driven by a significant decline in copper production in
Indonesia.
Outlook for the Second Half
Experts anticipate stronger copper production in the second half of the year. “Historically, copper output has tended to be higher in the second semester compared to the first,” notes Álvaro Merino, Executive Director of Núcleo Minero.
“Given the positive cumulative growth during the first six months and projecting seasonal patterns, production growth is expected to accelerate in the remainder of 2025,” adds Ciudad. However, this increase in output will occur in a context of anticipated price declines, following the implementation of U.S. copper tariffs taking effect this Friday.
“In the coming months, we will gradually see lower copper prices, with high volatility stemming from uncertainty and the effects of U.S. tariff policy. As such, the year 2025 is expected to close with an average copper price of around US$4.30 per pound—15 cents above the 2024 average, representing a 3.7% increase,” explains Merino.
Impact of the Tariff
According to experts, the first noticeable impact of the U.S. copper tariff will be observed in inventory levels. “If the announced tariffs are implemented, the initial effect will be on copper inventories in the United States—both in buyer stockpiles and on the Comex exchange—which will naturally tend to decrease. Currently, inventories on the New York exchange total 225,000 tonnes, 140,000 tonnes more than in December 2024,” Merino notes.
“Once the measure comes into effect, it is reasonable to expect some price moderation, as the U.S. will have accumulated enough stock to cover several months of consumption (…) It is important to consider that the global copper market is already operating with a tight balance, meaning production is finely tuned to meet global demand. Therefore, a direct impact on production levels is not anticipated,” concludes Ciudad.
Source: El Mercurio