The red metal is experiencing a period of sustained demand amid tightening global supply.
By Pablo San Martín
Copper prices keep rising. Today, the metal surpassed US$4.9 per pound on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by lower global supply and resilient demand.
The industry initially expected a surplus for this year. However, accidents such as those at Grasberg in Indonesia and El Teniente in Chile have had a severe impact on copper availability.
Adding to this, Teck Resources announced yesterday that it expects 40,000 t less copper production from Quebrada Blanca in Chile for this year.
The red metal has posted a sustained gain of 23% year-to-date, and today’s price marks the highest level in 16 months.
Some forecasts for the coming years are highly optimistic, with expectations that copper could exceed US$5.5 per pound.
But the key question remains: Will Chile benefit during the remainder of 2025? Analysts believe the answer is yes.
Fiscal Impact for Chile
“Regarding the concrete benefits for Chile in what remains of 2025, the Ministry of Finance used a copper price of US$4.09 per pound to formulate the 2025 fiscal budget, while the current average stands at US$4.35 per pound — well above both the projection and last year’s average,” explains Juan Carlos Guajardo, Executive Director of Plusmining.
He adds that, “considering roughly US$50 million in additional revenue for every cent the actual price exceeds the forecast, the Chilean Treasury could receive more than US$1.3 billion in extra income during 2025.”
A similar view is shared by Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of GEM Mining Consulting:
“It is most likely that the average copper price in the final quarter of this year will range between US$4.90 and US$5.20 per pound. That increase could translate into around US$3 billion in additional export revenues and approximately US$1.2 billion in extra fiscal collection from corporate tax, mining royalty, and other levies,” he notes.
“This is undoubtedly positive news for the country in the short term,” he concludes. It is worth noting that a few weeks ago Bank of America revised its copper price forecast for 2026 upward to US$5.13 per pound, from a previous US$4.62, while projecting US$6.12 per pound for 2027.
Source: EMOL