Experts see copper above US $ 5, but they anticipate moderation in the second semester

Yesterday copper reached a new maximum, arriving US $ 4.86 per pound.

Anyway, the annual average of mineral would exceed US $ 4 per pound, driven by the uses associated with the green economy.

The copper continues to extend its positive streak, after reaching its historic maximum last Friday. Yesterday, the metal shot another 3.5%, to be quoted at US $ 4.86 each pound, completing an advance of 38% of the year.

In this way, the metal continues to rise its value driven by various factors, among which highlight the Green Economy, the global weakening of the dollar, and specific elements in recent weeks, as are concerns linked to the supply of mineral in Chile and Peru . In this line, there is a certain consensus around that the trend should be extended in the short term, to overcome the US $ 5 barrier.

“We are seeing an abrupt and unpresected movement, which collects an offer that has responded slowly to an important increase in demand, driven largely by electromobility, but we hope that the offer will begin to respond in the second semester, by What is not disposable to overcome the US $ 5, “explains Sergio Lehman, chief economist at BCI, who plans that the average price of the year is close to US $ 4.20.

A similar level is the one who expects the academic of the Catholic University, Gustavo Lagos, who points to the multiplicity of factors that are influencing the rise in price, so, in his opinion, the average 2021 should be closed over the US $ 4.10 The Libra.

“What has happened has had a lot of contingent factors, mainly for what happens in Chile and Peru, but we must be attentive with what happens, since the surveys are showing an approach in the presidential election of Peru, so that It could eventually lower the risk, the same if in the royalty project the government takes an active role, they are things that change the risk perceptions and that they can have impact on prices, “explains the executive director of Plusmining, Juan Carlos Guajardo .

The expert emphasizes that the industry is against tremendously favorable context factors and the upward trend is still installed, but warns that demand in China is showing signs of decrease, prices, and logistical elements, so providing an average value of the Exercise in the range of US $ 4 per pound.

From Sonami, the Study Manager and member of Copper Price Consultative Committee, Alvaro Merino, anticipates that China’s growth, the main consumer of copper worldwide will be decelerated, particularly in the second half of the year. “This should tend to moderate the rise in the price of copper, in order to close the year with an annual average price, around US $ 4 per pound.”

Merino remembers that Asian authorities have already shown concern about the rise in raw materials, which has generated great pressure on the costs of companies, delivering the first signs that they will take measures to control speculation and advance value. “You have to have caution, because the metal market and particularly copper, moves to the rhythm that the Asian giant imposes,” he says.

Greater optimism shows the head of analysis of XTB LATAM, José Raúl Godoy, who advances that it is most likely to continue seeing a high volatility in the price of the metal, “but everything points to a strong demand, which is probably spreading In time and disruption in the offer, the price of the pound of copper should be around US $ 5 in the short term. ” He ensures that even the annual average could overcome that barrier.

However, according to an Econsult report, the price of copper that is seen these days although it corresponds to the nominal historical maximum, it is not real in real terms. This, since in the previous supercology, it reached a value equivalent to US $ 5.37, a figure that even reached US $ 7.61 in 1974 and US $ 7.11 in 1966.

Meanwhile, since the government addressed the impact of the behavior of the country’s main export, and the Minister of Finance, Rodrigo Cerda, said that “this allows us to have greater fiscal collection,” which according to the last calculation of the department, would be of at least US $ 8,000 million. “The greatest collection we are using it intensely to finance social aid. If it was maintained higher, it is possible to have an additional collection, hopefully. If so, it will allow us to continue financing these social grants, he said sow.

Source: El Mercurio

Translated with Google Translator