The current price represents an unusual premium of 12.6% over the quotation in London, due to tariffs being considered by the White House. The promise of spending stimulus in China has provided support to both prices on the demand side.
By Patricia Marchetti y Benjamín Pescio
Very soon, copper could reach unprecedented highs if one considers the prices on the U.S. commodity exchanges. These reflect the hoarding of inventories in anticipation of a possible import tariff, while renewed perceptions about demand contribute to the metal’s climb.
Copper futures rose 1.66% to US$5,100 per pound at the close of the U.S. Comex market, remaining only marginally below the historic close of US$5,106 seen on May 21, 2024. They are also still a little away from reaching last year’s intraday record of US$5.2. So far in 2025, Comex copper has accumulated a gain of 26.66%.
The current price signifies an unusual premium of 12.6% over the quotation at the London Metal Exchange (LME), where copper futures closed the session at US$4.53 per pound. LME warehouses have recently experienced a continuous depletion of inventories.
Pooling Copper
“Clearly, the trigger for the chaos in the copper market in recent weeks has been the announcement of tariffs (by President Trump). That disrupted the market as it required repositioning copper between the most important market, which is the LME, and that of the U.S.,” Jorge Cantallopts, CEO of Cesco, told DF.
It was on February 25 when the White House ordered the Department of Commerce to initiate a national security investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (the same law used during his first term to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum). The order established that within 270 days the department must deliver a report to Trump.
Cantallopts also noted that there is an expectation of higher demand driving commodity prices in general. The latest milestone was the spending stimulus announcements in China, focused on promoting expenditure through an injection of resources to consumers.
“The current price of copper is benefiting from the loss of global dollar strength, from the increased temporary demand in the U.S. anticipating a potential tariff, and from the improved economic outlook in China,” summarized Juan Cristóbal Ciudad, senior market and industry analyst at Plusmining.
He anticipated that, given the current dynamics of the various announcements coming from the White House, it is still too early to indicate a new annual price target (currently, Plusmining is aiming at US$4.25 per pound), but there is potential for the metal to temporarily reach daily values within historic highs.
“As long as the announcement of increased tariffs by the U.S. is not confirmed, the price of the metal could continue rising, driven by the growing demand to secure supply before such a tariff measure takes effect,” stated Álvaro Merino, CEO of Núcleo Minero.
He then highlighted the high volatility with which Chile’s main export product has been trading. He pointed to the following risk factors: the performance of the global economy, the value of the dollar, geopolitical risks generated by conflicts in the Middle East, the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the trade tensions between the United States and China. “In this regard, more than just a trade dispute, what is at stake is future global hegemony,” he added.
Source: Diario Financiero