Chilean copper producers – led by Codelco as the main supplier – now account for 72% of total copper exports to the United States in all of 2024.
By Patricia Marchetti
It was only a matter of time before Trump did it again. However, his early-year announcement threatening to impose tariffs on US copper imports gave Chile-based producers the opportunity to act in advance – and they certainly did.
According to data from ProChile requested by DF, Chilean copper shipments to the US reached USD 4.082 billion in the first half of the year, registering a 122.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This figure represents 72% of all copper exports to the US market in 2024, equivalent to USD 5.657 billion.
Strong demand from North America and an average copper price of USD 4.29 per pound (3.8% higher than in the first half of the previous year) pushed total “Made in Chile” copper exports to USD 26.032 billion between January and June, a 13.4% year-on-year increase.
The US-bound shift was already being observed as early as March by this outlet, which reported on stockpiles of Chilean copper being tracked in US ports, as buyers advanced purchases to avoid future tariffs – a practice known as frontloading.
This trend is clearly reflected in the shipment data by company between January and April of this year compared to the same period in 2024, with a 157% increase in value: from USD 985 million in 2024 to USD 2.536 billion in 2025, according to data compiled by Plusmining.
During that period, Codelco, the main supplier of copper to the US, increased exports to the country by 117%. With USD 855 million, the state-owned company represented 34% of all Chilean copper arriving at US ports.
Also noteworthy is the 315% increase in shipments from Minera Spence (BHP), rising from USD 70 million in the first four months of 2024 to USD 291 million from January to April 2025.
For comparison: Escondida increased shipments by 169%, Zaldívar (Luksic group) went from zero to USD 148 million, and Centinela (Luksic group) from USD 4 million to USD 120 million.
In summary, all Chile-based copper companies redirected exports away from the Pacific and toward the north, with the US accounting for 16% of Chilean copper exports in the first half of 2025, compared to 10% in 2024.
“It’s unclear whether the tariff will apply to all copper products or whether certain countries, like ours, will be granted exceptions. What is clear is that global copper demand is growing at a rate of 3% this year, while supply isn’t.” — Máximo Pacheco, Chairman of the Board, Codelco.
“We are concerned about the indirect effect these kinds of announcements could have on international prices and the global investment climate (…) The threat of a new trade war between major powers increases volatility and uncertainty over future copper demand.” — Jorge Riesco, President, National Mining Society (Sonami)
Industry and Codelco respond to announcement
“Let’s not forget that the US lacks the capacity to be self-sufficient in copper,” said Sonami president Jorge Riesco, after the 50% tariff announcement. Joaquín Villarino, Executive President of the Mining Council, echoed that “domestic copper production capacity in the US is limited.”
According to the US Geological Survey, copper production in the US reached 1.1 million tons in 2024, while domestic consumption exceeded 1.6 million, with 36% of that coming from Chile.
Riesco argued that Trump’s latest move “is more of a negotiation tactic than a sustainable trade policy” and emphasized that “there are no technical or strategic reasons to justify such a measure against Chile.” Villarino called for caution but acknowledged potential impacts on the US copper supply chain.
Codelco’s Chairman Máximo Pacheco stressed that there has been no official White House communication regarding the measure and added: “it’s unclear, for example, if this tariff would apply to all copper products, including cathodes, or if exceptions would be made for certain countries like ours.”
Main impacts
In the short term, “the main effect is expected to be reflected only in higher prices and temporary demand growth,” said Juan Cristóbal Ciudad, analyst at Plusmining. “Real adaptation should occur over a longer time horizon, once US domestic production expands and, as a result, reduces its need to import copper from countries like Chile.”
Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of GEM Consulting, noted that as long as the new tariff isn’t enforced, the price of copper could surpass USD 5 per pound, and potentially exceed USD 6.
Due to the price differential, Chile could receive around USD 300 million in additional export revenue, potentially boosting 2025 GDP by 0.1 percentage points – from 2.3% to 2.4% – depending on how and when the threat materializes. “Clearly, it is in Chile’s best interest to sell as much as possible to the US in the short term,” the expert emphasized.
Álvaro Merino, Executive Director of Núcleo Minero, warned that if restrictions are placed on Chilean copper entering the US, the Free Trade Agreement in force since January 1, 2004 may have to be invoked, and other markets explored. In that context, the tariff could prompt Chile to look more toward Asia, where China, Japan and South Korea already account for more than 70% of the country’s copper exports.
Ciudad added that “as US domestic production rises and imports fall, it’s natural that this material will be redirected to other markets,” notably India, China and Europe.
Regarding fundamentals, Guzmán and Ciudad highlighted that the recent price surge is driven by frontloading, not by actual long-term demand growth. Thus, in the short term, there’s unlikely to be a major impact on supply.
However, in the long run, it could encourage domestic production and processing in the US, expanding global productive capacity.
Given a tight and inflexible market, Ciudad concluded, “this may help ease current tensions, without necessarily transforming the market into one of abundance.”
All experts agreed that one of the biggest concerns with US tariffs and the possible escalation of a new trade war between the world’s two largest powers is the potential ripple effect on global economic behavior, especially in copper dependent industries.
Source: Diario Financiero