Although Sernageomin and the Labor Directorate authorized the mine to partially resume operations after the accident that left six workers dead, Juan Carlos Guajardo, executive director of Plusmining, warns that the financial effect remains significant. He affirms that El Teniente is one of the most stable and strategic assets for the state-owned company and that a prolonged impact would compromise key financial indicators.
By Jaime Troncoso R.
What is your estimate of the daily losses generated by the shutdown of El Teniente since the accident?
For 2025, El Teniente’s production was estimated at 336,000 tonnes of fine copper, equivalent to around 920 tonnes per day. At a reference price of US$4.50 per pound (approximately US$9,920 per tonne), the gross daily production value borders US$9 million. Not all of this is a net loss, as some costs are not incurred and part of the production could potentially be recovered later. However, this figure reflects the order of magnitude of the revenue stream that has ceased. To this must be added the repair and compensation costs arising from the incident.
How relevant is El Teniente within Codelco’s revenue and profitability structure?
El Teniente accounts for about 23% of Codelco’s total production and is one of the divisions with the greatest stability and cost competitiveness. Its weight in revenue and profitability is proportionally higher relative to its share of production volume, making it a strategic asset.
Could the use of inventories or operational adjustments mitigate part of the losses?
Codelco was able to temporarily cushion the impact by using inventories, but these were exhausted within a few days. From that point on, sales losses were inevitable until production resumed.
What signals could this shutdown send to international copper markets?
This episode is a reminder of how difficult it is to maintain copper production and how exposed supply is to sudden events, in a context of structurally rising demand. Although the volume lost is limited on a global scale—around 30,000 tonnes of fine copper in 2025—it reinforces the perception that global supply is fragile and vulnerable to disruptions.
How does this stoppage affect the timelines for the start-up of structural projects such as Andesita and Andes Norte?
Both are part of the plan to extend the mine’s life and replace depleting areas. Without
certainty about the conditions and risks in the mine zones linked to these projects, it will be
difficult to estimate start-up timelines.
What is the financial impact of deferring production from these projects?
Delaying start-up means postponing significant cash flows, reducing the net present value of the investment. In assets of this kind, even a few months of delay can translate into value losses of tens of millions of dollars, in addition to disrupting the sequence of mine development.
From your perspective, does Codelco have room to make up for lost time?
Although technically it is possible to increase the exploitation rate once operations resume, in underground mining there are physical and safety limits that prevent full recovery of lost output. Generally, part of the delay consolidates as inevitable.
Some argue that El Teniente is a mine with decades of operation and that its structure poses geotechnical risks. Do you share this view?
With more than 115 years of operation, El Teniente faces the challenge of working at greater depths and under higher geomechanical stresses. This is not unique to this mine, but its scale and age make geotechnical management particularly demanding.
What safety and risk management standards should be reinforced in an underground operation of this magnitude?
Codelco already applies multiple safety measures, as rockburst issues have been present for a long time, but after an event of this scale it will likely be necessary to strengthen key areas:
- Real-time seismic and geomechanical monitoring to immediately respond to changes in rock mass conditions.
- Advanced predictive modeling to anticipate risk zones before critical incidents occur.
- Immediate evacuation protocols and continuous training to ensure all personnel know how to act under an alert.
- Periodic external audits to validate the effectiveness and sufficiency of the standards applied.
The most important task will be a thorough investigation to precisely determine the actual level of risk and the feasibility of operating under the current design.
Are these safety issues common in mines of this age, or is El Teniente a particular case?
Rockburst phenomena are known in deep mines worldwide. In the case of El Teniente, the combination of depth, accumulated stress, and scale makes these events a permanent risk requiring intensive management.
How do you think this accident and its consequences could influence Codelco’s reputation as a global mining operator?
The way Codelco manages the investigation, communication, and safe resumption of the affected areas will be decisive for its reputation. Transparent management and the adoption of verifiable improvements could safeguard its image; the opposite could undermine it in the markets and with stakeholders.
In a context of growing copper demand, what impact would a sustained reduction in El Teniente’s production have on Codelco?
El Teniente is one of the company’s most stable and significant assets. A prolonged impact would affect not only sales but also the revenue and cost structure, compromising key financial indicators. It is therefore critical to quickly assess the severity of the situation and clearly define mitigation and recovery plans.
What strategic lessons does this episode leave for long-term planning in large-scale copper mining?
This episode leaves lessons that go beyond technical matters: that risk management must be at the core of corporate strategy, with resources and support at the highest level, and that credible rapid-response capacity is a reputational asset that must be built before a crisis and tested during it.
Source: Ex-Ante