Every October, London becomes the center of the metal world. The LME Week—the flagship gathering of producers, traders, banks, and investors—is where the industry takes the pulse of the planet. And this year, the diagnosis was unequivocal: the tectonic plates of the global mining system are moving.
By Juan Carlos Guajardo
For years, discussions revolved around structural changes: new demand drivers stemming from the energy transition, the reorganization of supply chains, the rivalry between China and the United States, the redefinition of the dollar, and the advance of industrial policies. In 2025, these trends have ceased to be theory—they are already reshaping metal markets and the broader geoeconomic landscape.
In London, copper once again took center stage. It remains the most promising yet most debated metal. Over one million tonnes of expected production will not reach the market due to operational disruptions at mines in Indonesia, the Congo, and Chile. This shortfall has kept prices near US$5 per pound and fueled projections of new records for 2026. However, the simultaneous rally in gold and silver reveals a more cautious undertone: investors are seeking refuge from growing fiscal and monetary fragility worldwide.
Beyond prices, two concrete signals defined this year’s LME Week.
First, the cathode premiums set by Codelco reached an all-time high, reflecting a physical market where the supply of high-quality, traceable material is increasingly scarce and valued.
Second, treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) are under unprecedented pressure. The traditional global benchmark mechanism—a cornerstone of balance between miners and smelters—appears to be under strain, driven by China’s expanding smelting capacity, the closure of Western facilities, and a shortage of concentrates, all of which are pushing the market into new territory.
Adding to this, building and operating mines has become increasingly difficult. Financial costs are rising, permitting processes are becoming uncertain, and environmental and social requirements are multiplying. All this comes as many mines face lower grades and greater depths. The result is a structural tension between a steadily growing global demand and a supply side struggling to respond at the same pace.
Even so, global resilience continues to surprise. Despite the pandemic, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts, the world economy has not stalled—though the risk remains that this apparent stability conceals accumulated tensions that could surface later as a crisis. Metals demand remains underpinned by the energy transition, infrastructure spending, and Asian dynamism.
The high prices of copper, gold, and silver are no coincidence; they are visible symptoms of a new era. Metals such as copper are evolving from mere industrial inputs to stores of value, instruments of economic power, and focal points of a new global competition.
The world of metals has already entered a new age—and this time, the movement is irreversible.
Source: El Mercurio