Experts agree that Chile has fallen behind in the expansion of the lithium industry, while other countries have more projects scheduled to come online.
Chile has been displaced by China as the third-largest lithium producer in the world, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates of mine production for 2025. Experts broadly agree that Chile is losing ground in the global lithium race, as other countries have expanded their production at a faster pace.
The USGS estimates that Australia produced 92,000 tonnes of lithium content last year, an increase from 82,700 tonnes in 2024. China now ranks second, reaching 62,000 tonnes of lithium in 2025, well above the 41,400 tonnes produced in 2024. Chile’s production also increased—from 48,900 tonnes in 2024 to 56,000 tonnes last year—however, this was not enough to maintain its second-place position globally, leaving the country now ranked third among the world’s largest lithium producers.
“China expanded its production very rapidly with new hard-rock mines that entered production or accelerated operations in 2023 and 2024, such as Jianxiawo, Lijiagou, and Shuinanduan, as well as the ramp-up of Huashan. In brines, it also added supply through assets such as Qarhan, Shehong, and Jiezechaka, with start-ups in 2024 and 2025, and expansions at Chaidam and Zabuye. China is expected to continue increasing its production in the coming years,” explains Nassam Estibill, Director of Consulting at Wood Mackenzie.
In addition, other lithium producers behind Chile—Zimbabwe and Argentina—have also increased their output, producing 28,000 and 23,000 tonnes of lithium in 2025, respectively, bringing them closer to Chile’s position.
Chile Falling Behind
In this context, experts warn that Chile’s relative share in the lithium market is increasingly under threat.
“Until 2012, we were the world’s largest lithium producer, and now we have fallen to third place. If we do not take meaningful action in the very short term, it is highly likely that we could fall to fourth place by the end of the decade,” says Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of GEM Mining Consulting. The expert believes the country’s loss of market share is mainly due to Chile’s limited production capacity and the slow incorporation of new salars into the project pipeline.
“Chile has increased its production in recent years, but that growth has been largely driven by expansions of existing operations in the Salar de Atacama. In terms of new projects, progress has been slower than in other jurisdictions,” says Andrés González, Head of Mining Industry Analysis at Plusmining.
The mining expert adds: “Chile will likely continue to lose relative market share in the global lithium market, not necessarily because of declining production, but because other countries are growing more rapidly.”
Argentina Gains Ground
According to Estibill, Chile is “falling behind in terms of growth.” He believes Argentina is the clearest competitor, given that it has multiple brine operations ramping up production and several expansions under evaluation for the 2026–2030 period.
“Zimbabwe may continue to grow in mining output, but it is less likely to surpass Chile due to the scale and continuity of Chile’s production ramp-up. Nevertheless, the aggressive supply growth coming from Africa should not be underestimated,” he says.
Guzmán agrees that Argentina is gaining ground in lithium production. “Zimbabwe faces certain constraints that suggest its production could plateau. Argentina, however, still has significant growth potential. What we are seeing is that in a market with very strong demand, Chile is falling behind and losing market share at an accelerated pace,” he comments.
For González, Argentina could approach Chile’s production levels by the end of the decade. “One structural factor behind this is that lithium in Chile is not concessionable, which requires projects to be developed through Special Lithium Operation Contracts (CEOL).
These processes have tended to be institutionally and legally more complex, which has affected project timelines,” he explains.
In contrast, lithium is concessionable in Argentina. In that country, there is a broad portfolio of projects at different stages of development. “However, based on current project timelines, it is not evident that Argentina will surpass Chile in production in the short term, although it could significantly narrow the gap by the end of the decade,” González concludes.
Source: El Mercurio