Escondida on the brink: the vote that could shake Chilean copper

Negotiations at the world’s largest copper mine took a last-minute turn. After rejecting Escondida’s offer on Tuesday, Supervisors and Staff Union No. 2 reached a preliminary agreement with the company early this morning, which was submitted to a vote by its
members. The work stoppage was suspended pending approval. If the proposal is rejected, the strike would begin on Thursday, October 15, at 8:00 a.m., the company said.

The union represents around 1,020 professionals. According to Diario Financiero, the rejected offer included a CLP 28 million bargaining settlement payment, including a low-interest loan; CLP 1.5 million for vacations; a net transportation allowance of CLP 350,000; and 25 UF for education for workers without children, among other benefits. These benefits relate to the previous proposal, rather than the final terms of the preliminary agreement.

The dispute is drawing attention because of the operation’s importance and the roles of those involved in the negotiations. Fiorella Ulloa, who oversees Policy and Regulation at Plusmining, warns: “Production risk should not be measured solely by the percentage of workers taking industrial action.” A supervisors’ strike, she explains, could affect equipment whose operators are not participating in the strike, given the importance of those supervisory duties for operational continuity.

Isaac Paredes, Operations Manager at GEM Minería, agrees that the impact will depend on the duration of the strike and the level of operations that can be maintained if no agreement is reached. “A complete shutdown should not automatically be assumed,” he says. However, he warns that “any additional loss would be difficult to recover within the year,” with consequences for exports, tax revenues and suppliers in Antofagasta.

Álvaro Merino Lacoste, Executive Director of Núcleo Minero, estimates that Escondida will produce around 1.15 million tonnes in 2026, equivalent to 22% of national output. In the event of a complete shutdown, he calculates a daily loss of 3,150 tonnes, valued at approximately US6.69 per pound. He stresses that this scenario is unlikely and does not automatically reflect the impact of a supervisors’ strike.

The executive also calls for benefits to be linked to the productivity of each operation. “If benefits far exceed productivity levels, that mining company will lose competitiveness in the long term and will not be sustainable over time,” he argues.

For Javier Mella, an academic at the University of the Andes’ Faculty of Engineering, a prolonged disruption would have macroeconomic effects. He recalls that during the major strike in 2017, the mining component of the Monthly Economic Activity Index, or Imacec, fell by 17.1% in February and 22.7% in March, according to figures reported at the time. He warns of possible declines in exports and fiscal revenues, as well as greater exchange rate volatility: “The macroeconomic effects of a work stoppage are negative and significant, but would depend on its duration.”

Centinela: pressure and continuity

The other front for Chile’s mining industry is at Centinela, where two unions representing 709 people began a legal strike on October 7. The company says it is maintaining its planned production and called for dialogue to continue.

It also questioned the hunger strike reportedly begun by three union members. Boris Astete, People and Organization Manager, said: “Protecting people’s lives and physical integrity must always be our main concern.” The company noted that the rejected offer included a 2% increase in base pay in real terms and a net package of CLP 26 million comprising a bonus and a loan. Fiorella says the unions report constraints affecting equipment and critical functions. “The market views these disputes as an additional risk to copper supply,” she concludes.

Source: La Segunda