El cobre cerró en US$4,93, su mayor prehistórico en términos nominales. El precio del dólar no ha seguido la tendencia de otros episodios que mostraban que si el cobre subía, el tipo de cambio bajada. Los expertos afirman que la divisa está desalineada de sus fundamentos.
Por Carlos Alonso y Matías Vera
After six consecutive increases, copper has broken through a new barrier, surpassing its previous record set on May 20, 2024, on the London Metal Exchange (LME). According to Cochilco data, the metal traded at US$4.93 per pound, a 1.2% rise compared to Wednesday, October 8, 2025. Year to date, copper prices have climbed 24.8%, with an average of US$4.35 per pound, representing a 4.8% increase over the same period last year.
This rally occurs amid a global context characterized by growing copper demand, driven by the energy transition and the ongoing expansion of electric mobility. A significant portion of the recent price surge, however, is linked to supply disruptions, as major copper mines have faced incidents that directly affected output.
Despite these constraints, analysts anticipate favorable conditions for 2026 and 2027. “The current price momentum could persist for some time. This is mainly due to supply-side challenges—although the incident at the Indonesian mine occurred about a month ago, its full impact has yet to be fully assessed,” noted Ignacio Muñoz, researcher at Clapes UC.
In late September, Bank of America raised its 2026 average copper price forecast from US$4.62 to US$5.13 per pound, and its 2027 projection from US$5.44 to a record US$6.12 per pound.
Similarly, Goldman Sachs increased its second-half price outlook from US$9,140 to US$9,890 per metric ton (US$4.49 per pound) and reaffirmed a long-term bullish target of US$10,750 per ton (US$4.88 per pound) for 2027. Citi also revised its short-term forecasts, raising its three-month and Q4 estimates to US$10,500 per ton (US$4.76 per pound), mainly due to continued disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine.
Macroeconomic Implications
The sharp rise in copper prices has far-reaching effects across the economy—most notably on fiscal revenues, since higher prices translate into greater tax and royalty income from mining companies. Analysts emphasize, however, that while this increase strengthens effective revenues, it does not immediately alter structural revenues, which are based on the reference price set by Chile’s Copper Price Committee.
For instance, if Chile’s 2026 national budget was based on an assumed copper price of US$4.35 per pound, maintaining prices near US$4.93—the closing level on October 9, 2025—could yield up to US$2.4 billion in additional fiscal income.
According to experts, every one-cent increase in the copper price contributes between US$28 million and US$35 million to government revenues.
Mauricio Carrasco, academic at the Universidad San Sebastián, noted that “based on Dipres estimates, each 0.01-dollar increase in the effective copper price translates into roughly US$35 million in additional revenue, a figure that could rise with the full implementation of Chile’s new mining royalty.”
Former Budget Director Matías Acevedo offered a similar assessment:
“This means approximately US$200 million per month in additional income compared to the budgeted figures, funds that should ideally be saved. Each additional cent in copper price at current levels could contribute between US$45 and US$50 million to fiscal revenues,” he explained.
A former advisor to Dipres and the Finance Ministry added that “the relationship between copper prices and fiscal revenue is direct: higher prices boost monthly transfers from Codelco and the provisional tax payments (PPM) from private miners. In turn, this improves next year’s income tax collection.”
Exchange Rate Behavior
Contrary to historical patterns, the Chilean peso has not appreciated alongside the copper rally. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar reversed earlier losses and closed slightly higher at CLP$950.8, ending a three-day decline, according to data from the Bolsa Electrónica de Chile.
Economists note that the exchange rate remains misaligned.
“Given the current fundamentals, the peso should be closer to CLP$900,” said Nathan Pincheira, Chief Economist at Fynsa.
Sergio Lehmann, Chief Economist at BCI, added that “the exchange rate today is less sensitive to copper prices, as interest rate differentials with the U.S. and investor confidence now play a greater role.”
Lehmann projected that the peso could strengthen to around CLP$910 next year, potentially lower if copper stabilizes above US$5 per pound and the next administration prioritizes investment, stability, and legal certainty.
Mining Sector Perspectives
While the copper rally is positive for macroeconomic indicators, the mining sector views it with cautious optimism, as much of the price surge stems from tragic incidents that disrupted supply. Notably, the Grasberg (Indonesia), El Teniente (Chile), and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) mines have all faced major operational setbacks.
Driven by supply constraints, copper reached US$4.9289 per pound, its highest nominal level ever, influenced by these incidents, U.S. fiscal uncertainty, and Federal Reserve policy.
“If current copper prices hold and forward projections remain elevated, there is no doubt this will strengthen incentives to accelerate the commissioning of new operations,” said Juan Cristóbal Ciudad, Senior Market and Industry Analyst at Plusmining.
However, as Reinaldo Salazar, Head of Research at Sonami, cautioned, “investment depends not only on price; it also requires timely permitting, competitive energy and water costs, and regulatory certainty. When these align, investment tends to accelerate.”
Ciudad added that higher reference prices in project evaluations make previously marginal developments profitable, “reactivating investor interest across the mining value chain. Such conditions typically stimulate capital flows into the sector and revitalize project pipelines.”
Salazar noted that under these scenarios, companies often resume plant expansions, circuit optimizations, low-grade zone exploitation, and tailings reprocessing. Still, he warned, “execution is not immediate—it requires updated technical studies, finalized contracts, financing, and valid permits. Brownfield projects can resume within months, but Greenfield developments still require years.”
Outlook
Ciudad projects that copper prices may reach even higher levels in the short term, though likely accompanied by greater volatility, given that global supply remains constrained amid structurally strong demand.
Salazar concurs, expecting high but fluctuating prices: “Values could moderate if large mines normalize production, the dollar strengthens, or global activity slows—but could spike again with new disruptions, low inventories, or additional stimulus in Asia.”
He added that if supply does not recover visibly by 2026, copper will likely remain in an elevated but volatile range, consistent with a tight market structure.
Despite the historic nominal record, Ciudad offered a broader perspective: “In real terms—adjusted for inflation—there have been higher prices, particularly during the commodity supercycle of the 2000s, in May 2006, February 2011, and more recently May 2021.”
Labor Relations Outlook
Another key implication of current price levels is their impact on labor negotiations.
“It is reasonable to expect higher expectations around bonuses and wage adjustments within regular bargaining cycles,” said Salazar. “Beyond that, it is prudent to respect existing agreements and channel any review through technical mechanisms.”
Ciudad added that more than ten collective negotiations are scheduled in the Chilean mining sector during the last quarter of the year.
“This process coincides with a high copper price cycle, which, as in previous occasions, may influence the dynamics of labor talks,” he noted.
According to Ciudad, recent months have seen growing union demands, with rising metal prices adding pressure to collective bargaining processes and strengthening unions’ negotiating positions.
Source: La Tercera